The Five Rules of Risk

  • нийтэлсэн 11 өдрийн өмнө

    Wendover ProductionsWendover Productions

    Үргэлжлэх хугацаа: 13:43

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    Animation by Josh Sherrington
    Sound by Graham Haerther (www.Haerther.net)
    Thumbnail by Simon Buckmaster
    Music by epidemicsound.com
    Select footage courtesy the AP Archive
    References:
    [1] www.cdc.gov/motorvehiclesafety/pedestrian_safety/index.html
    [2] www.statista.com/statistics/198029/total-number-of-us-licensed-drivers-by-state/
    [3] www.statista.com/statistics/191660/fatality-rate-per-100000-licensed-drivers-in-the-us-since-1988/
    [4] www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6843304/
    [5] www.cmu.edu/epp/people/faculty/research/PS%20FSLRC%20HowSafe.pdf
    [6] www-jstor-org.ezproxy.is.ed.ac.uk/stable/pdf/1727970.pdf?refreqid=excelsior%3Ac48a7fe2f9c0fedf29cba859db4daebd
    [7] www.cmu.edu/epp/people/faculty/research/PS%20FSLRC%20HowSafe.pdf
    [8] journal.sjdm.org/7303a/jdm7303a.htm

Wendover Productions
Wendover Productions

We got some math wrong. The annual fatality odds for licensed drivers in the US is actually 1 in 6,000 which translates to lifetime odds of about 1 in 75.

10 өдрийн өмнө
Peter V
Peter V

That is probably big enough, that you should fix the video or at least do an overlay and note in the description.

Өдрийн өмнө
Samtember
Samtember

Yeah you can't leave this video up with that massive of an error bro. You have to change it. Great video though. Really important rn.

2 өдрийн өмнө
Jeff Timmerberg
Jeff Timmerberg

So are we overestimating or underestimating the coronavirus risk?

3 өдрийн өмнө
CptKirk FPV
CptKirk FPV

@panzerveps not true...

4 өдрийн өмнө
Stephan Brun
Stephan Brun

I do have to wonder what happens if one omits behaviour like driving drunk, which would increase risk dramatically. Do the odds of death/injury then fall, and by how much?

6 өдрийн өмнө
Arvind Jiji Antony
Arvind Jiji Antony

It just had to be a Cyber truck. Didn't it?

2 цагийн өмнө
Khanh Pham
Khanh Pham

can't agree more on your last statement!!!!!

4 цагийн өмнө
Logan Lovell
Logan Lovell

wendover productions has become a philosopher....now we must call it whydover productions

4 цагийн өмнө
Formata Gfys
Formata Gfys

Why u use the tesla pick up as the model for car?

4 цагийн өмнө
Slithermotion
Slithermotion

8:10 Ok Ok....Am I the only one who misses the number 16?

10 цагийн өмнө
Marc o
Marc o

This explains why people fear 5G

18 цагийн өмнө
Shakra Nandi
Shakra Nandi

Wow Wendover this video is great! You've not only set the record straight on that nuclear power video from a few years ago but also put the problem we are witnessing all over to such a succinct point: "when people somehow, get to decide what risk others face, perception is dangerous because it can silently and unknowingly eclipse science, statistics and fact"

21 цагийн өмнө
TheGamingBoyTV
TheGamingBoyTV

You should do a video how to make a cargo airline

22 цагийн өмнө
LoloiloCptPouts
LoloiloCptPouts

lot of math are kinda wrong, also didn't take under consideration the amount of people in each activity. statistics can lie when you use tham in such one dimensional way.

Өдрийн өмнө
Ktm S
Ktm S

Because there are millions of people driving versus just few thousands who do mountain biking

Өдрийн өмнө
Forrest Charles
Forrest Charles

dang I MTB every single day and plan to never own a car 🤷

Өдрийн өмнө
homei
homei

why does he sound and talk like Half As Interesting?

Өдрийн өмнө
James Harmon
James Harmon

"one death is a tragedy, a million deaths is a statistic" Joseph Stalin

Өдрийн өмнө
DasNotizPapier
DasNotizPapier

10:10 reminds me of a quote allegedly by stalin: "One death is a tragedy; a million deaths a statistic."

Өдрийн өмнө
Iqbal Hassan
Iqbal Hassan

I walk outside because life wouldn't be life if I didn't as to say I wouldn't call it life if there was no walking outside

2 өдрийн өмнө
Emil P
Emil P

PLEASE LEARN ABOUT DE-ESSING and improve your videos

2 өдрийн өмнө
Six Dawg 18
Six Dawg 18

Isn’t it great that he uses a cyber truck as his example of a car🤣🤣

2 өдрийн өмнө
bibasik7
bibasik7

1:11 But there's a VERY low chance of being hit by a Cybertruck, considering that it hasn't been released yet.

2 өдрийн өмнө
Collin yan
Collin yan

if i were to mountain bike id be much more likely to die than if i were to drive. you frame the statistic as if driving was more dangerous but: the average driver drives many many more miles than the average mountain biker. and the average mountain biker is much more skilled at mountain biking than the average driver. and if everyone was to start mountain biking the fatality rate of mountain biking would increase much more sharply than for driving if everyone started driving

2 өдрийн өмнө
Fallen Pastabean
Fallen Pastabean

2:50 you forgot to consider the fact that in any given area at a given moment, the factor for the car being in a more dangerous scenario is higher simply because there are more cars in a given area moving at high speeds than there are bikes. When bikes match the number of car population, then the numbers would relatively equal. For ever 10 car drivers, it's reasonable to assume that at least 7 of them drive with no fuss, just going from point A to point B. The 3 of those 10 however, could have possibly been the ones who contributed to car crashes as they perhaps were those to either drive wrecklessly or drunk drive. The point is, we also have to evaluate these two vehicle's usage and the nature in which they are more likely to be used. Its simply evident in your video examples wherein cars were simply driving about while the mountain bikers will tend to flip around and do "dangerous" leaps onto rocks. I can assure you, of a comparison between 1000 regular cars, going about doing their city driving, and a group of 50 kids intentionally trying crazy stunts on a mountain bike, there will be more injuries with that group of kids. Again, it doesn't have much to do with the "vehicle" perse, it's merely a factor of sheer number of them and the ways in which they are being used, that increases the chance of unwanted combinations of possibilities (crashing, falling off into a cliff, etc.). Now take that previous example of 50 stunt-driven kids and push them to 1000 to equal those of cars. Now you tell me if 1000 stunt-daring kids are less likely to be injured than 1000 regular-driving parents or perhaps elderly people simply going to the grocery.

2 өдрийн өмнө
M Groh
M Groh

My takeaway from this video was about masks - in the end he shows people walking with masks and a few without. The people who choose not to wear them think they are only choosing a risk for themselves when in fact, because covid-19 can be without symptoms for days, they are choosing the risk of others too.

2 өдрийн өмнө
Westjet 003
Westjet 003

Now I dont want to walk outside

2 өдрийн өмнө
fin thehuman
fin thehuman

mountain biking has a lesser risk than driving a car because although the number of people mountain biking is high. it is still significantly lower than the number of people driving a car.

2 өдрийн өмнө
sor3999
sor3999

I knew this video would get to that conclusion.

2 өдрийн өмнө
abbsnn cose
abbsnn cose

Interesting topic. But very subjective as with anything psychological

2 өдрийн өмнө
Gerbert Heller
Gerbert Heller

I.e. COVID-19 is NOT risky. The lockdown will eventually kill more people and break the lives of billions.

3 өдрийн өмнө
abbsnn cose
abbsnn cose

Covid scamdemic brought me here. Oh lets kill Fauci and Gates. Seriously.

2 өдрийн өмнө
Shaldis
Shaldis

While I agree with the general concept and you later in the video do say that this list is not complete, I have one question regarding your first point that is decoupled from your argument: Do you think the low risk of mountainbiking could be correlated to the fact that those who do this activity are generally skilled at it, in turn reducing the average risk? Now, while I don't know if that is true or not, I assume that, also due to the perceived risk of mountainbiking, only a few people try it. Of these few people some might get injuries or simply dislike the activity and stop after a couple of times, elaving only those skilled at the activity for a vast number of data points that contribute to this statistic. Now thinking about it, maybe the statistic you used as a example accounts for this behavior, but my pessimistic mind kind of doubts that. Not to say that you misinform anyone with this, just an idea to think about. Really love this video btw!

3 өдрийн өмнө
nick parry
nick parry

I try to avoid driving due to risk. Yet I love mountain biking.

3 өдрийн өмнө
InfiNorth
InfiNorth

Please don't become CGPGrey and start making philosophy videos... I just want planes, trains, logistics, and science.

3 өдрийн өмнө
BoraCM 39
BoraCM 39

The graph shown at around 10 minutes in is wrong. It is the other way round. Also, human brains are extremely pragmatic, so telling us not to trust ourselves is not very helpful.

3 өдрийн өмнө
BoraCM 39
BoraCM 39

@nieooj gotoy What on Earth are you on about?

2 өдрийн өмнө
nieooj gotoy
nieooj gotoy

Ok but if you never walk outside you will die from no sunlight and no excersize so not doing that is also a risk

3 өдрийн өмнө
Will Banister
Will Banister

Greetings from the town of Wendover, in Buckinghamshire, England 🤚

3 өдрийн өмнө
Kevin Neilson
Kevin Neilson

Totally expecting never go for a war in Asia... but this will suffice :P

3 өдрийн өмнө
Bryan Croteau
Bryan Croteau

Rule #6: Many risks follow the power law distribution or are chaotic but they are reported using the normal distribution. For example, how many people who died in a war (pure chaos) will be reported along side how many people died from coconuts falling on their heads (normal distribution). The former may increase 1000x in a single year, while the latter will rarely deviate more than 1-2 standard deviations between years. This is often used to report that chaotic things are as risky or less risky than common everyday sources of death, and is one of the most common forms of fraud.

3 өдрийн өмнө
YINong Xu
YINong Xu

"Why do you ever walk outside" Corona:

3 өдрийн өмнө
afutla qian
afutla qian

final assertion that evokes a call to consciousness in May 2020.

3 өдрийн өмнө
Kromster80
Kromster80

Seems to be a mistake in numbers. "1 in 600" dies while driving is way off (277mil / 600 = 378k. Do you have 378k deaths on roads annually?)

3 өдрийн өмнө
afutla qian
afutla qian

This assumes risk is perceived as absolute. I don’t mountain bike because I think I will likely die, but because I don’t want to injure myself.

3 өдрийн өмнө
ThoperSought
ThoperSought

a lot of people seem to still be irrationally against nuclear power, though

4 өдрийн өмнө
Tal Sheynkman
Tal Sheynkman

Fun fact: the military is one of the safest environments to be in the developed world.

4 өдрийн өмнө
A Gamer
A Gamer

Skip to 3:42 to start the video.

4 өдрийн өмнө
Eric Johnsson
Eric Johnsson

Human perception and opinion is more than purely comparing risk vs risk. For instance, driving a car brings loads of value to the family owning the car in terms of convenience and time saved. Granted people don't normally think of the risk on a daily basis, but I still think the comparison to mountain biking in school is flawed. Mountain biking doesn't add (in parents' view) much more value than other PE activities, so it's not worth the added risk. Compare driving vs taking the bus though and you have loads of added value. So it's not just about comparing risk vs risk, it HAS to be concidered together with the VALUE of taking the risk. Any thoughts?

4 өдрийн өмнө
Tomasz Klisz
Tomasz Klisz

Covid scamdemic brought me here. Oh lets kill Fauci and Gates. Seriously.

4 өдрийн өмнө
Ignacio Irurita
Ignacio Irurita

Interesting topic. But very subjective as with anything psychological

4 өдрийн өмнө
GyroCannon
GyroCannon

There are a few issues I had with the assumptions made in this video, but the one I disagreed with the most is this: "The value of your first dollar is the same as your millionth" Well, the first dollar I earn goes towards lunch. The millionth gets me unnecessary luxury. I don't think those two are equivalent in any way.

4 өдрийн өмнө
Abhiyan Bhandari
Abhiyan Bhandari

2:46 that's a Tesla Cybertruck, I see what you did there 😏

4 өдрийн өмнө
RNG-esus
RNG-esus

I think the intro to the video took a weird perspective. For the sidewalk analogy there was no alternative. The risk that came to mind for me was not whether or not to use the side walk, it was should I use the road or sidewalk to walk on. Obviously the risk of walking on the road is significantly higher than the sidewalk so I'll choose the sidewalk. For the mountain biking one you weighed the risk of death from driving or biking but not injury. I don't know for sure but I'd be willing to bet that the statistics for biking injuries is much higher. Although it would be a tough stat to track cause not everyone is going to report their biking mishaps.

4 өдрийн өмнө
nieooj gotoy
nieooj gotoy

Love how he used a Tesla truck as the vehicle representation👍🏼👍🏼 ironically those vehicles will probably change the death rate statistics

4 өдрийн өмнө
Fizzy Zailani
Fizzy Zailani

I think this might be a bad video?! There certainly is fact, value and knowledge... So the overall content should be good, but somehow the video is bad. Like it's not articulate enough to it's point and it brushes over deeper reasoning without consideration. Point: video ought be good, objective and nuanced, but it isn't. It's choppy and open to misinterpretation, which is also risky. P. S. Long time fan, love your work. Some of your work is truly great and informative but this vid falls pretty short. Thus my (hopefully constructive) criticism.

4 өдрийн өмнө
nieooj gotoy
nieooj gotoy

This video is riddled with logical fallacies and I've only been watching for 3 minutes

4 өдрийн өмнө
Chongo Ok
Chongo Ok

Ok but if you never walk outside you will die from no sunlight and no excersize so not doing that is also a risk

4 өдрийн өмнө
Andrea Foglia
Andrea Foglia

Okay the fatality rate of driving is higher than mountain biking, but what about injury rate? Possibly parents were more worried about injuries rather than straight up death

4 өдрийн өмнө
Chris Doms
Chris Doms

Your maths on vehicle deaths - 1 in 600 per year - is laughably far off. It's not even close, your LIFETIME risk of dying in a car is still orders of magnitude less than that.

5 өдрийн өмнө
jayjay.24
jayjay.24

When comparing life and risk, there is a catch 22 - because when I step out of the door I risk my life, but if I don't, I don't live it.

5 өдрийн өмнө
Rage Knight
Rage Knight

2:41 Now we know where Elon Musk got his concept for his Tesla rover.

5 өдрийн өмнө
Casey Berner
Casey Berner

This assumes risk is perceived as absolute. I don’t mountain bike because I think I will likely die, but because I don’t want to injure myself.

5 өдрийн өмнө
spaghetti is deadi
spaghetti is deadi

came for board game, got existentialism.

5 өдрийн өмнө
Ronak Nikam
Ronak Nikam

I hope i don't' die after watching this video this dude made pandemic video before

5 өдрийн өмнө
Brandon Waters
Brandon Waters

8:00 railroads is misspelled. "Rairoads"

5 өдрийн өмнө
LexieAssassin
LexieAssassin

"If you kill one, it is a tragedy. If you kill ten million, it is a statistic."

5 өдрийн өмнө
kolim jone
kolim jone

"Why do you walk outside?" I don't. I'm in social quarantine. Checkmate buddy.

5 өдрийн өмнө
قيس الجدياني | QGamer_Ar
قيس الجدياني | QGamer_Ar

You cant compare driving to mountain biking The number of drivers are much higher than bikers

5 өдрийн өмнө
kolim jone
kolim jone

more exposure to cows than sharks for a fatality to even occur; I don't think you'd say based on that alone that it's riskier to work with cows than it would be to swim with shark

5 өдрийн өмнө
caquitows
caquitows

Eu fiz uma legenda em português-brasileiro... se alguém puder me ajudar a deixar disponível já está na área de legendas do vídeo...

5 өдрийн өмнө
Sam Garcia
Sam Garcia

I think some risk numbers are just "correlation not causation" figures.

5 өдрийн өмнө
Seth Apex
Seth Apex

well consdering humans will always have some degree of error in our risk management system, our leaders will always over shoot or undershoot the risks of some things.

5 өдрийн өмнө
S Edwards
S Edwards

This video is riddled with logical fallacies and I've only been watching for 3 minutes

5 өдрийн өмнө
Michael Harrison
Michael Harrison

Love how he used a Tesla truck as the vehicle representation👍🏼👍🏼 ironically those vehicles will probably change the death rate statistics

5 өдрийн өмнө
ХОРОШО
ХОРОШО

It's unbelievable most people can't understand such simple things.

5 өдрийн өмнө
Captive
Captive

Waited for risks of climate change as an example

5 өдрийн өмнө
stinksmcc
stinksmcc

2:14 wasatch crest!!

5 өдрийн өмнө
Joseph Waddell
Joseph Waddell

Flawed? Really? How about the fact that mountain biking has no useful utility in our lives; while driving is necessary to accomplish nearly everything.... Most of us have jobs away from home. Simple as...

5 өдрийн өмнө
psammiad
psammiad

Walking outside vs staying at home isn't zero-sum - a huge number of accidents happen in the home. The risk of not getting exercise is very high, etc.

5 өдрийн өмнө
Jackamomo
Jackamomo

I went driving along a motorway once. It was more scary to me than a roller coaster as it was clear I was taking my life into my hands. I wish the government would make proper public transport. I don't intend to ever drive again.

5 өдрийн өмнө
Sanajit Das
Sanajit Das

Did you just draw a image of tesla cyber truck

5 өдрийн өмнө
Urza9814
Urza9814

I think how much I value my life is fairly irrelevant for a risk calculation. When you weigh the value of the reward against the value of your life, how do you get the value of that reward? I think typically it could be understood in terms of mitigating some other risk. So it's not a series of isolated risk vs reward calculations, it's a single infinite web of risk vs risk vs risk. Driving is fine, because not getting to work or not getting to the grocery store is also pretty risky. Mountain biking after school isn't, because the risk from lack of exercise and entertainment isn't as severe. Or because there are less risky alternatives that solve the problem just as well. I also wonder if the thing about the 100th life having less value than the first could just be the effect of the other principles. I think your example was a terrorist attack which kills a few hundred being about as significant as a natural disaster that kills thousands...but while natural disasters aren't often predictable, they are known. They tend to be regional too which can make then seem more voluntary. You know what disasters might happen in your area, you know how to prepare for them, you move if you really don't want to take that risk. So that's a semi-known, voluntary risk against a generally unknown and "mandatory" risk. Not quite the same thing. Could even be as simple as more people dying means more people discussing it, which means more explanations for it are given making it seem more known or predictable too. Finally...humans wouldn't have evolved if we didn't also care about the survival of our family/tribe/species...which explains the "illogical" behavior around mandatory/unknown/high exposure risks. We're more willing to accept that we might die as long as it doesn't wipe out all of us at once.

5 өдрийн өмнө
Ariel Kass
Ariel Kass

I don't understand the statistics claims here. 1:55 ,000 change of dying if walking outside? reference 1 doesn't have that value. what it says is that there is a pedestrian death once every 88 mins in the US. So how many people walk outside every 88 mins? how many of those seconds of those walks were people not killed at? clearly dividing the number of pedestrian deaths per minute divided by the amount of persons minutes walked in the US every year, will show that the odds of dying by walking outside is extremely low. so maybe some other calculation? maybe the amount of pedestrian deaths in a given year divided by total amount of deaths in the US in a given year? that too doesn't reveal the correct risk, since it doesn't consider all the people in the US that DIDN'T DIE in that year. So the correct calculation should be the probability of dying in a given year * the probability of dying as a pedestrian hit by a car. Clearly this is much much lower than 1:55 ,000 claimed in the video this is the same for all other odds/risks presented. i don't think anyone would walk outside if the odds were so high. they simply aren't and that's why everyone does it. and in regards to mountain biking - the magnitude of the 2 death rates is simply nowhere near comparable. without taking into consider the trillions of driving hours of all americans a year is a warping of reality. what we all know intuitively is that if only 10 people do something and 1 person die due to a crash (for example), this activity is extremely more riskier than a different activity that has trillions of people doing it, but of all deaths during that activity 100% were caused by a crash (for example). the shear rarity of the death event itself is being ignored in the considerations presented in this video and skew what we all intuitively consider. that said, once the math is corrected, then indeed we all consider the value of risk vs. reward and make decisions accordingly

5 өдрийн өмнө
bowen voowy
bowen voowy

"infinity multiplied by anything is infinity" zero enters the chat

5 өдрийн өмнө
Vlad Pintea-Gärtner
Vlad Pintea-Gärtner

if 2/3 of people drive of course the numbers go up, the number of people that mountainbike likely leads to less risk because of selection bias, the people that do are less likely than the average person to suffer an accident in the situation; if 2/3 of people did mountain bike the numbers would go up, maybe not to the same number but yeah. In the US 1 person dies by a shark every 2 years, cows kill 20 people per year; Does that mean cows are more dangerous than sharks? No, it probably indicates that there's considerably more exposure to cows than sharks for a fatality to even occur; I don't think you'd say based on that alone that it's riskier to work with cows than it would be to swim with sharks.

5 өдрийн өмнө
bowen voowy
bowen voowy

Wealth is relative. The comparison with the dollar doesn’t hold up because in the case of a dollar, the perceived value loss at higher quantities is logically true as well. 10$ is

5 өдрийн өмнө
kityew23
kityew23

The animation in the video was really distracting

6 өдрийн өмнө
LoungeSpecialist
LoungeSpecialist

All of us Christians watching this: NBD

6 өдрийн өмнө
bob smith
bob smith

Cough cough, cdc, cough, cough

6 өдрийн өмнө
Julian Manieson Jr
Julian Manieson Jr

Is there not some Irony in this video ending with the words "or someone else will take it" re the domains?

6 өдрийн өмнө
Marc Goodman
Marc Goodman

We drive motorized vehicles because of the convenience, utility, necessity and pleasure they provide therefore we accept a higher risk (though we rarely think about it). We don't ride mountain bikes for the same reasons we drive therefore we accept a lower risk. If the very last image was some sort of 'dig' at the need for mass self-isolation, when was the last time so many did so much for so many? Thank you for not coviding.

6 өдрийн өмнө
jun ski
jun ski

not walk outside is guaranteed death by hunger.

6 өдрийн өмнө

Дараах

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Why Vertical Farming is the Future of Food

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Why Vertical Farming is the Future of Food

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The World's Most Useful Airport [Documentary]

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The World's Most Useful Airport [Documentary]

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Үзсэн тоо 2,7сая

Australia's China Problem

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Australia's China Problem

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Үзсэн тоо 3,8сая

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$1000 if You Can Break This Ball in 1 Minute

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Үзсэн тоо 3,3сая

Online Shopping HAUL!!  *Instagram Stores You NEED to Shop From!

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Үзсэн тоо 660мянга.

Maiara e Maraisa - Live #AquiEmCasaDois

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Үзсэн тоо 6сая

PS5 - The Future of Gaming

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PS5 - The Future of Gaming

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Үзсэн тоо 2,4сая

I CUT ALL MY HAIR OFF! 😬(it's really short...)

22:08

I CUT ALL MY HAIR OFF! 😬(it's really short...)

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Үзсэн тоо 382мянга.

The Coolest Personal Transportation?

5:17

The Coolest Personal Transportation?

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Үзсэн тоо 243мянга.